A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that polarised the country and unleashed chaos, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the political, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or campaigners want to engage with the basics. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unification or the status quo. They authors two pieces that strive for neutrality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and social statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass national emblems, duties, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they favour unification but oppose increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his generation is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a negligent official who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid points, he stated. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will eventually not succeed but each side has got something to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the debate, said O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
